Topuria vs Holloway Prediction, Fight Odds & Betting Tips - UFC 308

💯 Topuria vs Holloway Betting Odds

The pre-fight Topuria vs Holloway certainly make for interesting reading, with Ireland’s best betting sites listing ‘El Matador’ as the heavy favourite.

You can back Topuria to win at an average price of 1.34. These odds imply a 74.62% probability of the 27-year-old successfully defending his belt, with this based in part on stunning performance against the accomplished Volkanovski and his perfect, 15-0 record.

Conversely, the seasoned Holloway is priced at around 3.10, suggesting that ‘Blessed’ has just a 32.25% chance of winning on Yas Island. However, he’s a former unified UFC featherweight champion, while his volume, output and toughness make him a difficult opponent for anyone.

So, Holloway may be a little overpriced in the win market, and could well offer punters an opportunity to engage in value betting.

Player
Ilia Topuria	1.36	1.34	1.34	1.37
Max Holloway	3.16	2.90	2.97	3.10

🏆Topuria vs Holloway Prediction

Regardless of who you think will win this bout, there’s little doubt that the price of a Topuria victory is far too short. Not only is Holloway a former unified featherweight champion who’s on a three-fight winning streak, for example, but Blessed also boasts incredible durability and an often overwhelming style of fighting. Certainly, Holloway’s endurance could prove key in the UAE, with the 32-year-old’s average fight time totalling 16:15. If he’s able to absorb Topuria’s initial power and take him into the later rounds, he’ll have a clear and competitive advantage. Conversely, Topuria’s average fight time is 10:02, so his best chance is to either stop the bout early (as he did against Volkanovski) or use his superior offensive grappling skills to dominate on the ground.

Topuria will also have to deal with Holloway’s intensity and volume, while Blessed is also deceptively accurate when attempting significant strikes. In fact, he connects with 48.09% of such attempts, ensuring that his opponents take on significant damage while also struggling to create distance and implement their own fight plan. Another key element here is Holloway’s excellent takedown defence, which sits at 84% in the UFC. What’s more, he has only been submitted once during his MMA career, and this was on his UFC debut when he yielded to a perfectly executed triangle armbar against Dustin Poirier. This occurred more than 12 years ago in February 2012.

Overall, I think that Topuria will struggle to leverage his natural strengths and advantages in this fight, as Holloway looks to smother him with his work-rate and minimise the risk of being taken down. If Blessed is successful in imposing his own inimitable fighting style, I expect him to grind down the champion and win either via a late stoppage or decision.

⚡Ilia Topuria Overview

For many, Topuria exploded onto the scene with his stunning and surprising knockout of former featherweight king Alexander Volkanovski. However, he had previously recorded impressive wins over Josh Emmett and Bryce Mitchell, who are ranked as the eighth and 13th best featherweights on the planet at the time of writing.

Overall, the well-rounded Topuria has compiled a perfect 15-0 record during his MMA career, including a run of seven successive UFC wins since his debut with the promotion in October, 2020. Eight of his 15 career wins have been achieved by way of submission (53.33%), while he has beaten five of his opponents via knockout or TKO (33.33%).

This means that 13 of his 15 bouts have ended inside the distance (86.66%), with this record including an impressive nine first round finishes. Topuria is certainly a formidable fighter, who boasts excellent punch power and notable grappling skills. To this end, he has succeeded with 56% of his takedown attempts in the UFC, while the fact that he repels 93% of his opponents’ takedown attempts highlight his strength, resilience and technical ability (particularly in the clinch).

El Matador has attempted 667 significant strikes during his time in the UFC, landing with 309 of these (46%). On average, he lands 4.40 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing notably fewer (3.35). Some 230 of his significant strikes (74%) have been landed from a standing position too, so he’s clearly happy to trade and possesses power in both hands.

⭐ Max Holloway Overview

At first glance, Holloway’s record pales in comparison to his opponents’. However, he has still won 26 of his 33 career MMA bouts (78.78%), while incurring a total of seven defeats. Blessed is also a veteran of the UFC, having compiled a record of 22-7 with the promotion since his debut on February 4th, 2012.

Interestingly, 12 of his 26 career wins have come by way of knockout or TKO (46.15%), including his two most recent victories over Justin Gaethje and Jung Chan-sung. A further 12 victories have been achieved by decision, 10 of which have been unanimously agreed by the judges. This record is built on Holloway’s fighting style, which relies on relentless work-rate and volume and seeks to overwhelm opponents.

During his UFC career, Holloway has attempted an incredible 7023 significant strikes, landing with 3378 of these. Both are all-time UFC records in the featherweight class. He also lands an impressive 7.17 significant strikes per minute in the Ultimate Fighting Championship, with only Billy Quarantillo (7.47) and Shane Burgos (7.40) averaging more in the division.

Of course, Holloway’s desire to close the gap and outwork his opponents leaves him open to counters, and he has absorbed an average of 4.72 significant strikes per minute in the UFC. However, he has never been knockout out or stopped by a TKO, while he has still managed to repel 59% of his opponent’s attempted strikes during his UFC career.

Although Holloway isn’t an offensive grappler, he’s strong, experienced and boasts a takedown defence percentage of 84%. So, Topuria will have to work hard to dominate in the clinch and ground his opponent.

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❓Frequently Asked Questions About the Ilia Topuria vs Max Holloway Bout