Pereira vs Rountree Jr Prediction, Fight Odds & Betting Tips - UFC 307

Pereira vs Rountree Jr. Betting Odds

Pereira is the overwhelming favourite to defend his title against ‘The War Horse’, with odds of around 1.20 implying an 83.33% probability of a victory for the experienced Brazilian. This reflects his obvious ability at light-heavyweight and the fact that he has won eight out of nine UFC bouts since his debut with the promotion in November 2020.

Conversely, Rountree Jr. is priced at a distant 4.75 to win his maiden UFC title. These odds suggest that he has just a 21.05% chance of achieving this objective, despite reviving his MMA career of late with five consecutive victories.

What’s more, four of these wins have been achieved by way of technical knockout, with Rountree’s heavy hands finally earning him a tilt at glory at 205 pounds. Interestingly, of the 32 MMA bouts contested by both men, only one has stretched beyond three rounds, when Pereira stopped Israel Adesanya in the fifth back on November 12th, 2022.

Player
Alex Pereira	1.21	1.16	1.18	1.20
Khalil Rountree Jr	4.45	4.35	4.30	4.75
Draw	TBC	TBC	TBC	TBC

⚡Alex Pereira Overview

Defending champion Pereira has won 11 of his 13 career MMA bouts (84.61%) to date, including eight out of nine in the UFC. Even more impressively, the accurate and hard-hitting Brazilian has earned nine wins by way of stoppage (81.81%), with his other two career victories awarded via decision.

Incredibly, this will be Pereira’s sixth bout in just 18 months, and fifth title fight during the same period. This sequence started when Poatan lost his UFC Middleweight title to Israel Adesanya in April 2023, with the latter delivering a devastating KO inside two rounds. He made his debut at light-heavyweight barely three months later, earning a split-decision win against the wily Jan Błachowicz at UFC 291.

He subsequently won the 205-pound title in just his second bout at the weight, stopping Jiří Procházka with a flurry of elbows on November 11th, 2023. He then blew away Jamahal Hill in just one round in his first defence, before once again stopping Procházka in two high octane rounds on June 29th of this year.

Not only is Pereira an incredibly active and heavy-handed fighter, but he’s also noticeably accurate in his work. To this end, he has landed 454 of 712 attempted significant strikes in the UFC (64%), while a knockdown average of 1.04 is also highly impressive. Overall, he lands with 5.23 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing just 3.51 from his opponents.

Make no mistake; Pereria’s combination of power and accuracy is a potent mix, and he’s the deserved favourite ahead of his bout against Rountree Jr.

⭐ Khalil Rountree Jr Overview

Despite being three years younger than his opponent, the 34-year-old Rountree Jr has fought eight more MMA bouts in total (19). He has won 13 of these (68.42%) and been beaten on five occasions, including a run of three defeats in just four fights between November 2018 and January 2021.

However, his current five-bout winning streak is the longest of his career, with each of these victories having also been achieved inside three rounds. Three of these triumphs have earned Rountree Jr a ‘Performance of the Night’ bonus too, including a devastating first round stoppage of Chris Daukaus on August 12th, 2023.

This sequence highlights Rountree Jr’s undoubted knockout power, and like Pereira, he’s an aggressive puncher who prefers to fight on his feet. However, although he boasts a high work rate and has attempted more significant strikes than his UFC 307 opponent, he’s considerably less accurate. In fact, he has connected with just 451 of 1143 attempted significant strikes in the UFC (39%), highlighting a potential shortcoming and lack of precision that may be exploited by Periera.

He also lands considerably fewer significant strikes per minute (3.84) than Pereira. Even more alarmingly, he absorbs a whopping 4.18 significant blows per minute, suggesting that he’s far too hittable to contend with such a skilled and powerful opponent. However, he’s durable and willing to absorb blows in order to land his own, while his knockout power means that he cannot be discounted here.

🎁 Pereira vs Rountree Jr. Betting Offers

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🏆 Pereira vs Rountree Jr. Prediction

Not only are both of these contenders dominant and heavy-handed punchers, but Pereira and Rountree Jr. also adopt similar fighting styles. For example, they tend to target their opponents’ heads with the majority of their significant strikes, with 59% of Rountree Jr’s landed blows connecting above shoulder height. In total, 199 (or 44%) of Pereira’s 454 significant strikes also targeted the head successfully.

At the same time, 357 (79%) of Pereira’s significant strikes were landed from a standing position. Some 393 of his opponent’s strikes (87%) have come from the same upright stance, with neither fighter particularly active in the clinch or on the ground. Neither Pereira or Rountree Jr. are especially interested in grappling either, with takedown averages of 0.17 and 0 respectively. Neither fighter has ever submitted an opponent.

Ultimately, I’m expecting a hard-hitting fire fight at the Delta Center, and one in which both fighters look to knockout the other. However, it cannot be denied that Pereira is a more accurate puncher, while his strike defence is marginally better too. Pereira also absorbs considerably fewer significant strikes per minute than Rountree Jr, and the latter may need to adopt a more considered approach if he’s to be successful this weekend.

Conversely, Rountree Jr has a higher knockdown percentage than his opponent (1.66 vs 1.04), while he boasts seven first round finishes compared to just four for Pereira. So, he may also look to press forward aggressively from the opening bell and leverage his high work rate to force his opponent onto the backfoot, while searching for a significant, knockout blow.

Regardless, Periera is also a powerful striker with a high knockout rate, while his greater precision will enable him to counter successfully when Rountree Jr presses forward. Above all else, Rountree Jr is simply too hittable for a fighter of Pereira’s calibre and sharpness, and I expect the latter to prevail via stoppage.

❓ Frequently Asked Questions About Pereira vs Rountree Jr.