Pennington vs Pena Prediction, Fight Odds & Betting Tips - UFC 307

💯 Pennington vs Pena Betting Odds

Pennington is clearly the in-form fighter here, having won six(6) successive bouts and recorded two victories since Pena last stepped into the Octagon on July 30th, 2022. As a result, she’s the pre-fight favourite to triumph in Utah at the weekend, with odds of around 1.52 implying a 65.78% probability of a win for ‘Rocky’.

Conversely, 35-year-old Pena can be backed to prevail at an average price of 2.45. These odds imply a 40.81% probability of the ‘Venezuelan Vixen’ emerging victorious, and subsequently reclaiming the 135-pound title that she lost to Amanda Nunes more than two years ago. While a win market price of 2.45 may seem a little short given Pennington’s excellent form and Pena’s inactivity, the latter remains the number one ranked woman in the bantamweight class (even ahead of Ketlen Vieira and the impressive Kayla Harrison). So, she’ll prove tough and durable opposition in Salt Lake City, and the current odds reflect her enduring pedigree.

Player
Raquel Pennington to win	1.55	1.50	1.52	1.54
Julianna Pena to win	2.46	2.36	2.38	2.45

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🏆Pennington vs Pena Prediction - UFC 307

Both Pennington and Pena are relatively well-rounded fighters, with each demonstrating key strengths and weaknesses. For example, Rocky lands more significant strikes per minute and boasts a vastly superior takedown defence, but she absorbs more punishment than her opponent and has completed just 27% of her own attempted takedowns.

Conversely, Pena has a takedown accuracy of 55%, while her submission average of 0.85 per bout highlights her ability to use grappling as a key offensive weapon. However, she only repels 23% of her opponents’ attempted takedowns on average, while her striking accuracy is marginally lower than Pennington’s (47% vs 52%).

The grappling statistics may prove particularly insightful here, with this pair of fighters having produced just four(4) knockout or TKO wins in 40 bouts between them. Pennington and Pena also average fight times of 14:46 and 12:24 respectively, so this is likely to be a real test of endurance for both contenders and a bout in which a considerable amount of time is spent clinching or on the ground.

This will suit Pena to some degree, but Pennington has recorded the second highest amount of control time among female UFC fighters. More specifically, she has spent 1:04:39 in a dominant position (either on the ground or in a clinch), with only Sara McMann performing better according to this metric (1:10:22).

Given this and Pena’s vulnerability to her opponent’s takedown attempts, I expect Pennington to control a potentially scrappy bout and earn the win by way of decision. One thing’s for sure: this bout is likely to go the distance and challenge both fighters significantly.

⚡Raquel Pennington Overview

Pennington’s 12-year MMA career has been a rollercoaster ride, with the Colorado native having won 16 (and lost eight) of her 24 bouts. Of her 17 UFC fights, however, Pennington has won 12 (70.58%), including six consecutively since January 2020. Most recently, she won the vacant Women's Bantamweight Championship at UFC 297, earning a unanimous decision over Mayra Bueno Silva.

Interestingly, 11 of Rocky’s 16 MMA victories have come by way of decision (68.75%). She has only knocked out one of her opponents (Kim Couture on her debut in March 2012), while submitting a further four opponents. Clearly, she’s a well-rounded fighter with an ability to control bouts, with eight of her decision wins agreed on unanimously by the judges.

Key to Pennington’s recent success is her defence. For example, she has repelled 64% of her opponents’ takedown attempts in the UFC, while some 61% of the significant strikers attempted against her have not landed. To this end, only two of her career defeats have come by way of stoppage or submission (one each), with Rocky established as one of the sport’s most durable and solid competitors. She averages 0.90 takedowns per bout as well, so is more than capable of leveraging her grappling skills to go on the offensive. Although Rocky may not be a particularly explosive puncher (she actually has a career knockdown average of 0.00), she attempts a high number of strikes and is relatively accurate, having landed 1101 out of 2109 significant strikes during her career.

⭐ Julianna Pena Overview

On paper, Pena has little chance against such a tough and in-form opponent. After all, not only has she been inactive since her disappointing points loss to Amanda Nunes in July 2022, but the Venezuelan Vixen has also lost three of her last six bouts in the UFC. The loss to Nunes saw her surrender the bantamweight title in her first defence, just seven months after she had stunned ‘The Lioness’ with a rear-naked choke. However, Pena has won 11 of her 16 MMA bouts overall (68.75%), and six out of nine (66.66%) under the banner of the Ultimate Fighting Championship. Intriguingly, five of Pena’s 11 career wins (including her title victory over Nunes) have been achieved by way of submission (45.45%), while she has knocked out three opponents and earned three unanimous decisions.

I expect Pena to test her opponent’s takedown defence at UFC 307, as she averages an impressive 1.94 takedowns per 15 minutes and has succeeded with 55% of her total takedown attempts. She’s more than capable of dominating on the ground and submitting Pennington, although Cat Zingano is the only previous fighter to achieve this particular feat back on October 6th, 2012. Pena is also capable on her feet, although her striking accuracy of 48% leaves significant room for improvement. While she also lands an average of just 3.16 significant strikes per minute in the UFC (compared to 4.14 for Pennington), she also tends to absorb less punishment than her opponent. Overall, opponents land an average of 2.30 significant strikes per minutes on Pena, compared to 3.29 against Pennington. So, Pena boasts an impressive strike defence, and will at least prove hard to stop inside the distance at the Delta Center. Sarah Moras is the only fighter to record a knockout or TKO against Pena, way back in her fifth bout in April 2012.

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❓Frequently Asked Questions About Raquel Pennington vs Julianna Pena