Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko Prediction, Fight Odds & Betting Tips - UFC FN

💯 Grasso vs Shevchenko Betting Odds

Grasso was the huge underdog when she defeated Shevchenko at UFC 285, but stunned fans by submitting her opponent with a rear-naked choke in the fourth round. The rematch ended in a thrilling split draw, and Grasso’s odds of around 1.82 in the trilogy bout imply a 54.94% probability of the 31-year-old Mexican recording another win.

Shevchenko, who was on a nine-fight winning streak prior to her initial loss to Grasso, can be backed at 1.91 to win the trilogy bout. This implies a 52.35% probability of a victory for the ‘Bullet’, so Ireland’s best betting sites are clearly split when it comes to the win market here. We also discuss about all you need to know about your favorite sportsbooks in our bookmaker reviews but first let’s take a closer look at the pre-fight odds in full!

Player
Alexa Grasso	1.82	1.78	1.80	1.84
Valentina Shevchenko	1.98	1.90	1.91	1.96

🏆 Grasso vs Shevchenko Fight Prediction

Shevchenko entered the first bout between this pair as the undisputed queen at 125 pounds, having reeled off nine consecutive victories at flyweight and recorded seven successive title defences. However, she met her match in the form of the tenacious Grasso, who countered a misjudged spinning back kick to administer the first (and only) submission in the Bullet’s entire career.

The rematch was a similarly epic encounter, although Shevchenko was much more guarded this time around. This bout was a thrilling, fluctuating encounter, which ended in a split-draw after judge Mike Bell scored it 47-47 after five rounds. Grasso was the aggressor throughout in Vegas, but Shevchenko was a little more accurate and managed to complete far more takedowns.

The statistics from the rematch bore this out, while highlighting just how little there is to choose between the two women. Grasso produced the slightly higher output and landed 262 of 408 attempted strikes (64.21%), while Shevchenko was marginally more accurate and connected with 199 of her 301 attempted strikes (66.11%).

Grasso also targeted Shevchenko’s body and legs with a much higher frequency, but the latter’s more conservative approach enabled her to counter effectively throughout. Shevchenko also succeeded with four out of seven attempted takedowns (57%), but on the sole occasion Grasso was able to ground the Bullet in round five, she subsequently reigned down a flurry of punches and almost completed another rear-naked choke.

Ultimately, Grasso has the edge in terms of output and punch power, while she has proven to be much more ruthless when she gets on top of Shevchenko (both on her feet and the ground). She’s also incredibly durable and five years’ Shevchenko’s junior, and I expect her to outlast her opponent and secure a narrow decision here.

⚡Amanda Grasso Overview

Grasso has amassed an MMA career record of 16-3-1, with the Mexican winning exactly 80% of her bouts since her debut in December 2012. She has also won eight of her 12 fights under the banner of the UFC (66.66%), while losing three times and securing the aforementioned split draw against Shevchenko last time out.

Although Grasso submitted Shevchenko in the pair’s first bout, she’s better known as a striker than a grappler. In fact, Joanne Wood is the only other opponent that Grasso has submitted during her career, while she has stopped four of her victims (25%) and outpointed 10. This also highlights her durability, with 63% of her victories coming by way of decision.

Grasso’s superior boxing skills were evident during both previous bouts against Shevchenko, while she has landed considerably more significant strikes per minute during her career (4.67 vs 3.28). However, she’s also less accurate than Shevchenko and tends to incur far more punishment, absorbing 3.95 significant strikes per minute compared to just 2.11 by her opponent.

Still, Grasso is powerful and as tough as they come, and the deserved winner of the World MMA’s ‘Female Fighter of the Year’ award in 2023. Grasso also earned ‘Submission of the Year’ and ‘Upset of the Year’ as a result of her first performance against Shevchenko, and she’s a more than justified favourite ahead of the trilogy bout.

⭐ Valentina Shevchenko Overview

After a torrid 2023 and her two monumental clashes with Grasso, Shevchenko has an MMA career record of 23-4-1. When fighting under the banner of the UFC, she has compiled a record of 12-3-1, winning 75% of her bouts since December 2015. Interestingly, Amanda Nunes is the only fighter other than Grasso to defeat Shevchenko during her UFC career.

Prior to her first bout against Grasso, the Bullet had won nine consecutive UFC bouts. This sequence had seen her win the UFC Women's Flyweight Championship from Joanna Jędrzejczyk and defend this title seven times, before a missed spinning back kick enabled Grasso to take her back and lock in a devastating rear-naked choke.

Incredibly, Grasso became the first ever opponent to submit Shevchenko at UFC 285, with the 36-year-old Kyrgyzstani star considered to be a superb grappler. Although she lacks punch power, Shevchenko is also a technically proficient boxer with a solid defence, while she demonstrated her immense toughness in the split-draw against Grasso last September. This was particular evident as she survived Grasso’s sole successful takedown in round five.

The nature of Shevchenko’s 23 victories also reflect her reputation as a well-balanced fighter. Eight of her wins have come by way of knockout (34.78%), for example, while seven have been achieved via submission (30.43%). Interestingly, 34.78% of her career wins have come via decisions, but this percentage increases to 75% in the UFC.

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❓Frequently Asked Questions About Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko