France v Italy Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips | 6N 2024

💯 France v Italy Betting Odds Six Nations

This would not be much of a betting prediction without the odds, so let us get into what you can find for this match at my favourites rugby bookmakers.

🥇 France v Italy Match Winner Odds

That is disappointing. I was hoping to see at least one more option for a French win, but all credit to LegendPlay Sports. See the rest of the odds in the table below.

Team
	-	-	1.01	-	-
X	-	-	51.00	40.00	-
	14.21	14.21	14.00	22.75	-

➕ France v Italy Handicap 3-Way Odds

For me, the fun begins with the handicap odds: the bookies are offering options of 20-point to 32-point margins, so there is a lot to play with. Discover what you can claim below.

Team
(0-32)	-	-	2.62	-	2.50
(0-27)	-	-	-	1.85	-
(0-26)	-	-	1.86	-	28.00
(0-20)	-	-	1.40	-	1.45
X (0-32)	-	-	31.00	-	31.00
X (0-27)	-	-	-	17.60	-
X (0-26)	-	-	18.00	-	28.00
X (0-20)	-	-	31.00	-	31.00
(0-32)	-	-	1.48	-	1.45
(0-27)	-	-	-	1.84	-
(0-26)	-	-	1.86	-	1.95
(0-20)	-	-	2.90	-	2.90

🏮 France v Italy Asian Handicap Odds

For those that prefer more granular options, the Asian handicaps has a nice split of options every two points, ranging from ±24.5 to ±30.5 points. Find out if there is anything of which you like the look in the table.

Team
(-30.5)	-	-	2.40	-	2.37
(-28.5)	-	-	2.10	-	2.05
(-26.5)	1.85	1.85	1.85	1.78	1.85
(-24.5)	-	-	1.66	-	1.65
(+30.5)	-	-	1.55	-	1.55
(+28.5)	-	-	1.70	-	1.72
(+26.5)	1.91	1.92	1.94	1.84	1.90
(+24.5)	-	-	2.16	-	2.10

Odds accurate at time of writing. Odds subject to change.

🔍 France v Italy Winner Prediction

The bookies have put next to nothing together for a French win and extended the odds of an Italian win by a country mile. Do Italy have any hope in this David and Goliath game? Let us take a look at some of the key predictors.

History

France and Italy have played each other 48 times, with France having won 45 of such and Italy claiming only 3. The long-term history certainly points to a French win, but what of recent times? In last year's Six Nations, France beat their rivals 24-29, despite a rousing Italian performance. I therefore think that the final score may be closer than in old times, but this predictor still seems to show that the Giuseppe Garibaldi Trophy will be going the way of the French.

Last Performances

There was quite the shock at the Orange Vélodrome for France in week one when Ireland stormed to a 21-point final score. French fans would also have been left a little dazed at their side's week-two performance after winning due to nothing more than a controversial disallowed try. Having said that, Italy will be feeling the worse for wear from their first two games, having been defeated on home soil by England in the first instance before being put to the sword at the Aviva by Ireland. France may seem to be struggling somewhat to get into the game, but they are still at least challenging a second-place finish, unlike Italy. For that reason, this seems to be another predictor of a win for France.

World Rankings

France are currently in fourth, and the Italians are lagging far behind in 11^th. Not much needs to be said about this; the French still seem in the driving seat, going into this match.

Home Advantage

The French will certainly feel stung that they have to continue to relinquish the Stade de France to preparations for the Olympics in the summer, but Les Bleus will still be out in force at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy. Provided Italy fail to provide the same silencing pressure that the Irish did, French fans should be singing their team to the rafters and giving a well-needed boost to their side.

Weather

The weather should be 8°C with a 45% chance of light rain. The key factor will be wind in excess of 16mph. On paper, neither side should have an advantage from this forecast, but I imagine we will see a rejig in the styles of play for both teams to counteract the gusty elements.

Game Play Styles

The two sides will be playing very different styles of rugby. The French are known for their flair, but they have also become a well-organised, chopping-and-topping outfit that are able to force chances from their opponents rather than relying on defensive mistakes. Italy, by contrast, are still all about their flair and have yet to develop quite the same critical insight on the pitch that would allow them more opportunities to grace the scoreboard. For that reason, I think we will see the merit of Fabien Galthié's tactics shine on Sunday.

Winner Summary

I have tried to give Italy their fair shake of the dice, but at the end of the day, we are talking about one of the top five teams in world rugby playing the whipping boys of the Six Nations. I would love to see a tight game on Sunday, but deep down, I think we all already know who we think will win. I am going with France to win by 12 points in a closer-than-expected but unsurprising clash.

✔️ France v Italy Betting Tips

1️⃣ Match Winner: France to Win

I have France as my winner, but most of my favourite bookies have been a bit ginger and not provided odds for that outcome. The only option available from my list is France to win at 1.01 at LegendPlay Sports, but who wants to risk Italy having a surprise stormer for the potential return of an extra cent for every euro you stake? Bet as you like, but for me? Pass!

2️⃣ Handicap Winner: Italy to Win (+28.5)

I think France will only do the business by 12 points, but I would be happy taking a lot of leeway and go with Italy to win (+28.5) at 1.70 at LegendPlay Sports. That would mean Italy could lose by four converted tries or less and you would still win your bet for 70% net gain. Of course, however, there is risk involved. Let us not forget that Italy lost 36-0 to Ireland in the last round of the competition and there are no guarantees in rugby. Just be careful with what you bet and remember to stake only what you are comfortable losing.

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📰 Six Nations News for France v Italy on X

Discover the latest news for both teams ahead of France v Italy.

🐓 France Updates

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📺 2023 France v Italy Highlights

See below for last year's France v Italy Six Nations highlights.

⚡ Six Nations France v Italy Prediction at a Glance

✒️ Steven Brown - Sports Writer and Rugby Expert

This prediction was written by Steven Brown.

In 2023, 81.71% of my predictions were correct.