2024 F1 Italian GP Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds

📋 Italian Grand Prix - Stats

• Lewis Hamilton has the best record of all active drivers at Monza, winning five times in total during his career. Overall, Hamilton shares this record with German legend and former Ferrari driver Michael Schumacher
• Home favourites Ferrari are also the most successful team at Monza, having won this race 19 times in total. However, they last triumphed here in 2019, when Charles Leclerc took the chequered flag for the constructor
• Lewis Hamilton produced the fastest ever lap in an F1 car at the Italian Grand Prix in 2020. This came during qualifying, as he maintained an average speed of 264.363 km/h during his pole lap

🏎️ Italian Grand Prix - Racetrack Overview

Not only is Monza the most famous F1 circuit, but it’s also the oldest racetrack in the whole of mainland Europe. It was built more than 100 hundred years ago in 1922, and became just the third purpose-built motor racing circuit in the world when construction finished. Only Brooklands and Indianapolis are home to older tracks.

Sitting slightly north of the city of Milan, Monza is home to the seventh-longest track in use during the 2024 F1 season, covering a total distance of 5.793 kilometres (or 3.600 miles). The layout of this track is also unique on the modern-day Formula 1 calendar, thanks to its combination of noticeably long straights and incredibly tight chicanes.

This creates a low downforce track that suits the fastest cars, although it also puts a strain on engines that must operate at full power for 80% of each lap. Gearboxes are used extensively during the chicanes too, while it should be noted that the Monza circuit has been the fastest on the F1 calendar since 1991.

The standout feature of this track is the ‘Curva Grande’, which is positioned just after the Variante del Rettifilo and at the end of the front straight. It’s challenging position requires drivers to take this high speed curve flat out, and there’s no doubt that traction and good breaking stability will be crucial of this is to be navigated successfully.

💯 F1 Italian Grand Prix Betting Odds

Sports betting and F1 enthusiasts will know that Lando Norris has started the previous three F1 races as favourite, even before blitzing the field at the Zandvoort Circuit last week. He’s unsurprisingly the pre-race favourite to win at Monza too, with an average price of 1.99 implying a 50.25% probability of another Norris victory.

As for Verstappen (who has won the last two Italian GPs), his odds of prevailing at Monza have lengthened in recent days. He can now be backed in the win market at around 3.80, suggesting that he has just a 26.31% chance of snapping his five-race winless run this weekend.

Norris’s McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri is priced at around 7.20 to secure his second Grand Prix win of the season at Monza. These odds imply just a 13.88% probability of this outcome occurring, but he may offer value after recording three podium finishes in his previous five races. Here’s a summary of the latest win market odds from Ireland’s best new betting sites!

Pilot
Lando Norris	2.00	1.99	1.99	1.99
Max Verstappen	3.80	3.80	3.80	3.80
Oscar Piastri	7.00	7.20	7.15	7.20
Charles Leclerc	12.00	11.00	11.30	11.00
Carlos Sainz	15.00	15.00	15.20	15.00
Lewis Hamilton	19.00	16.00	15.80	16.00
George Russell	19.00	17.00	16.60	17.00
Sergio Perez	67.00	60.00	58.00	60.00

✔️ Italian Grand Prix Betting Tips

Despite Norris dominating at the Zandvoort Circuit last weekend, it’s interesting to note that the last six F1 races have produced five different winners. You can also wager on a number of different betting markets ahead of the Italian Grand Prix, so here are some expert betting tips to help you navigate these successfully!

• Bet on Lando Norris to Triumph Again: Norris’s victory at the Dutch GP was the biggest of the 2024 season, as he finished an astonishing +22.896 seconds ahead of Verstappen. He also recorded the fastest laps during two rounds of qualifying and the race itself, dominating from the outset and obliterating the field. His much-improved McLaren is also explosive on the straights, while the low downforce track at Monza is arguably tailormade for a constructor that has won two of the previous three GPs. So, there’s value in backing Norris to triumph again here at a price of 2.00 with DirectionBet.
• Back Norris to Qualify First and Win the Race: McLaren’s potential speed advantage at Monza could be significant, and Norris is likely to be the main beneficiary of this. His dominance at Zandvoort last weekend was complete, as he recorded the fastest time in qualifying (1:09.673) to secure pole and the quickest lap during the race itself (1:13.817). He may be even quicker in Italy, which is why he’s the pre-race favourite to secure pole position again and record a second successive Grand Prix win. You can get on this at the competitive price of 3.25 with DirectionBet.
• Back Oscar Piastri to Claim a Podium Finish: Norris’s McLaren teammate Piastri should also thrive at the Monza Circuit, while the Australian is in outstanding form having recorded three podium finishes in his last five outings. This sequence included his maiden F1 win at the Hungaroring on July 21st, while he placed fourth in the Netherlands last weekend. Interestingly, Piastri was the third fastest during qualifying at the Zandvoort track and is likely to be even quicker at Monza. You can back Piastri to finish in the top three once again at a price of 2.03 with Sportaza Sports.

💨 F1 Italian Grand Prix Prediction

It’s now five races and two months since Verstappen last won a Grand Prix, after previously recording an incredible 26 victories in 32 races since the beginning of the 2023 campaign. He has only recorded two podium finishes during his winless streak too, while he was powerless against the speed and power of Norris’s McLaren in the Netherlands.

As the current win market odds suggest, Verstappen’s fortunes aren’t expected to improve markedly this weekend. After all, the McLaren car is tailormade for Monza’s long straights and low downforce track, while both Norris and Piastri have been in exceptional form of late. So, although Red Bull are a well-rounded team that’s capable of doing well in Italy, they tend to perform best on street circuits rather than straightforward power tracks.

Given the relatively simple layout and underlying nature of the Monza track, qualification is also likely to play a particularly seminal role in determining the race outcome. However, McLaren’s newfound consistency enables its drivers to deliver optimal performances during qualifying, and the pre-race odds imply a 38.50% probability of Norris starting on pole position once again.

Notwithstanding the fact that Verstappen has won the last two Italian Grand Prixs, the Dutchman has struggled to keep pace with both Norris and Piastri of late. Him and his team are also at a distinct disadvantage on a low downforce track such as Monza, while Norris continues to ride the crest of a wave after his stunning triumph in the Netherlands. So, get on the Brit to win again for McLaren and cut Verstappen’s lead in the Drivers’ Championship further!

🔍 Betting on the 2024 Italian Grand Prix

• Understand the layout of the track and its low levels of downforce, which suit the McLaren team and drivers like Norris.
• Factor in historic results at the Monza track and average lap times during recent iterations of the Italian GP.
• Follow all the action during the initial practice and qualifying rounds. This will highlight the quickest teams and drivers in real-time, potentially informing your selections ahead of the race.

💶 F1 Italian Grand Prix Free Bets

In order to optimise your potential returns, it’s important to make the most of any free bet offers and bonuses that are available. I’ve summarised the best such offers below, along with their key terms and conditions and information on how to claim them!

Sportsbook	Terms and Conditions	Offer
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🏁 Betting on Italian Grand Prix - Our Conclusion

Monza will host its 94th Grand Prix this weekend, with Lando Norris the deserved favourite to win here after his dominant performance at the Zandvoort Circuit. His McLaren car is also perfectly suited to Monza’s seemingly endless straights, and with the right strategy, I expect Norris to dominate again and win the 2024 Italian GP!