Belgian Grand Prix Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds

📋 Belgian Grand Prix - Key Points

• The iconic Eau Rouge/Raidillon corner is unique in F1, and features an incredible elevation change of 35 meters from its lowest to highest point.
• While Michael Schumacher is the most successful driver in the history of the Belgian Grand Prix with six victories, Lewis Hamilton has the most wins of all current drivers (four).
• 12 of the last 23 Belgian Grand Prixs have been won by less than five seconds. Interestingly, the largest ever win margin here was recorded by the legendary Jim Clark in 1963, when he triumphed by an incredible 474 seconds.

💯 Belgian Grand Prix Betting Odds

Ireland’s best betting sites have clearly been influenced by Verstappen’s winless streak and run of just three victories in his last eight Grand Prixs, with the Dutchman now listed as the second favourite behind Lando Norris. Oscar Piastri’s superb run in Hungary has also seen the Australian’s odds slashed ahead of the trip to the Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps, with his win market price of 6.00 implying a 16.66% probability of him securing back-to-back wins in Belgium. Here is a list of odds from the best betting sites.

Driver
Lando Norris	2.20	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25
Max Verstappen	2.88	3.00	3.00	3.00	2.98
Oscar Piastri	6.00	6.00	6.00	6.00	6.05
George Russell	13.00	13.00	13.00	13.00	12.90
Lewis Hamilton	12.00	13.00	13.00	13.00	12.85
Charles Leclerc	34.00	29.00	29.00	29.00	28.79
Carlos Sainz	34.00	40.00	40.00	40.00	40.64
Sergio Perez	34.00	40.00	40.00	40.00	41.49

🏎️ Belgian Grand Prix - Circuit Overview

The Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps is one of Formula One’s most iconic and enduring tracks, having initially opened way back in August 1921. Although the first ever race scheduled at the track was cancelled due to a shortage of entrants, it subsequently hosted the infamous ’24 Hours of Francorchamps’ 12 months later.

This track has always been one of the quickest on the F1 calendar, despite the fact that several modifications have been made to create a safer environment for drivers. For example, an extra run-off was added to the challenging Eau Rouge/Raidillon part of the course in 2022, creating a more manageable turn after the latter’s incredibly steep slope.

Overall, the modern-day Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps covers 7.004 km (4.352 miles), making it the longest track featured in the F1 calendar. However, it has been reduced markedly from its original length of 14.9 kilometers, leaving 20 challenging turns and the speedy, 1.05km ‘Kemmel Straight’.

This track also boasts the greatest difference between its highest and lowest elevation points (102.2 metres), which makes it hard for drivers to manage their speed in real-time. Entering and exiting the aforementioned Raidillon turn offers arguably the biggest challenge, while the overall speed of the track typically suits skilled drivers with the fastest cars.

✔️ Belgian Grand Prix Betting Tips

While understanding the pre-race odds and unique layout of the Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps is crucial before betting on the Belgian Grand Prix, you also need to identify the best value markets and wagering lines. So, I’ve prepared some insightful betting tips to help you make the most of your real money bankroll and free bets!

• Tip 1: Pick Max Verstappen to Win: Verstappen’s poor run of form has certainly piqued the interest of bookmakers, with his average odds of 3.00 establishing him as second favourite behind Lando Norris. However, while these odds imply just a 33.33% probability of Verstappen prevailing in Belgium, it should be noted that the Dutchman has won three successive Grand Prixs at the Spa-Francorchamps since 2020. His skill-set and speed is also perfectly suited to the track, so we’d recommend using your free bets to back him to win here at the enhanced price of 3.00 with LegendPlay Sports.
• Tip 2: Back Lando Norris to Record a Top-Three Finish: If you’re looking for a safer wager here, Lando Norris also offers significant value (both for the win and a top-three finish). After all, he only lost by -2.141 seconds at the Hungaroring last time out, while he has earned four podium finishes in his last five F1 outings. He has also finished second in three of his last four races and sits second in the Drivers’ Championship with an impressive 189 points overall. So, consider backing Norris to record another top-three finish in Belgium at a price of 1.25 with 20BET Sports.
• Tip 3: Back a Winning Margin of Under 5 Seconds: While Verstappen’s three successive victories at the Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps produced a combined winning margin of + 26.513 seconds, 12 of the last 23 iterations of this race have been won by less than five seconds. Verstappen’s narrow victory in 2021 was achieved by a margin of just +1.995 seconds too, while the last eight GPs in 2024 have seen far more intense levels of competition and produced five different winners. Mercedes have also made significant improvements to their cars, so get on this race to be won by a margin of under five seconds at a price of 1.65 with Sportaza Sports.

💨 F1 Belgian Grand Prix Prediction

Verstappen’s frustration boiled over after he limped into fifth place in the Hungarian Grand Prix, as he criticized Lewis Hamilton for their controversial collision and urged his Red Bull team to “do better” in the wake of their flawed strategy at the Hungaroring. He’ll certainly be desperate to return to winning ways and restore his diminishing lead in the 2024 Drivers’ Championship, having lost three successive races for the first time since 2022.

The good news for Verstappen is that he loves the Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps, having won here on three successive occasions since Lewis Hamilton triumphed in 2020. Two of these victories were also incredibly dominant, particularly his +17.841 second triumph over Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez in 2022.

It should also be noted that despite recent form analysis and the significant recent improvements made by Mercedes, Verstappen’s Red Bull remains the fastest car on the F1 circuit. The Dutchman is therefore best placed to leverage the elongated straights at Spa-Francorchamps, so a solid performance in qualifying should set him up for another victory in Belgium.

Verstappen is also undoubtedly underpriced at around 2.75, so there’s genuine value in backing him to win the 2024 Belgian Grand Prix!