Azerbaijan Grand Prix Prediction, Tips & Odds 2024

💯 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix Betting Odds

Lando Norris will start the Azerbaijan Grand Prix as the sports betting favourite, after dominating the Dutch Grand Prix two weeks ago and earning four podium finishes in his previous five outings.

Norris’s McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri is the second favourite at the time of writing, having trailed Leclerc by just 2.664 seconds in Monza. The Australian driver has earned three top-three finishes in his last four races, while his average starting price of 5.80 implies a 17.24% probability of a win for the talented 23-year-old.

Among Ireland’s new betting sites, Leclerc can be backed at odds of 6.00 to record a second successive Grand Prix win in Azerbaijan. These odds imply a 16.66% probability of a Leclerc victory, which would also be the Ferrari driver’s third in 2024.

As for the previously dominant Verstappen, he’s priced at a relatively distant 7.30. This suggests that he has just a 13.69% chance of succeeding at the Baku City Circuit, as he looks to end his worst winless run since 2020.

Pilot
Lando Norris	2.20	2.24	2.25	2.24
Oscar Piastri	6.00	5.80	5.75	5.80
Charles Leclerc	6.00	6.00	6.00	6.00
Max Verstappen	7.50	7.20	7.30	7.20
Carlos Sainz	11.00	11.00	10.50	11.00
Lewis Hamilton	15.00	14.00	14.30	14.00
George Russell	17.00	16.00	15.50	16.00
Sergio Perez	26.00	29.00	29.50	29.00

🏎️ Baku City Circuit - Circuit Overview

One of Formula One’s newest tracks, the Baku City Circuit was designed by Hermann Tilke. The German engineer is responsible for conceiving and laying out a number of recently introduced F1 tracks, including the Marina Bay Street Circuit and Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas. It’s located in the heart of Azerbaijan’s capital and within close proximity of the main promenade on the Caspian Sea.

It’s now one of eight street circuits on the F1 calendar, having initially hosted the 2016 European Grand Prix. A year later, it was the venue for the inaugural Azerbaijan GP, and this has remained a staple of Formula 1 racing ever since. At 6.003km, it’s now the third-longest track in use, behind Spa Francorchamps (7.004km) and Jeddah Corniche Circuit (6.174km).

Despite being a street circuit, the track is Baku is characterised by a number of long straights. So, it’s one of the fastest street circuits on the F1 calendar, behind the Jeddah Corniche track (which was introduced in 2021). Once again, this will most likely benefit McLaren, whose vehicles are particularly dynamic and explosive on the straights.

However, the Baku City Circuit also features an incredibly narrow section from turn eight through 12, which run alongside the old city walls. It’s here where the Red Bull team may be able to secure a competitive edge, while it should contribute to a tight race where there are several potential winners.

✔️ Azerbaijan Grand Prix Betting Tips

While McLaren currently possess the fastest car and the two in-form drivers, Ferrari could also be competitive once again in Baku. However, Red Bull should also have addressed some of the some of the RB20's balance issues, while the constructor typically fare well on street circuit designs. So, here are some betting tips to help you make the most of your starting bankroll!

• Tip 1: Bet on Lando Norris to Win Again: Although Norris trailed in third in Monza after starting on pole, he has earned three podium finishes in his previous four races. This sequence included a dominant win in the Dutch Grand Prix, while it should be noted that Norris also recorded the fastest laps both in Monza (1:21.432) and at the Zandvoort Circuit (1:13.817). McLaren undoubtedly possess the quickest and most explosive F1 car at the time of writing too, and the team should perform well at a circuit with a number of extended straights. So, there’s value in backing Norris to win again here at the competitive price of 2.25 with GoldenBet.
• Tip 2: Back Piastri to Earn a Podium Finish: Piastri will also benefit from McLaren’s incredible speed in Baku, while the 23-year-old remains in a superb run of form having earned four podium finishes in his last six races. This run also saw him secure his maiden F1 win at the Hungaroring, while he finished just 2.664 seconds behind Leclerc in Monza despite being called in for an additional pit stop. Interestingly, his fastest lap time of 1:21.943 in Monza was nearly 1.5 seconds faster than Leclerc’s, and McLaren may enjoy a similar speed advantage here. So, get on Piastri to finish on the podium again at a price of 1.78 with Sportaza.
• Tip 3: Back McLaren as the Winning Constructor: McLaren are now just eight points behind Red Bull in the Constructors’ Championship, having amassed 121 points in the previous four races. This sequence has included a one-two in the Hungarian Grand Prix, while Norris’s superb win in Zandvoort delivered the constructor’s third race victory of the campaign. As I’ve touched on, McLaren’s cars are also tailormade for Baku’s low downforce circuit, while a bright and clear weather forecast amplify their speed advantage. So, get McLaren as the winning constructor at a price of 1.66 with Betalright.

💨 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix Prediction

Max Verstappen’s winless run now stretches back six races to June 23rd, when he prevailed by +2.219 seconds from Lando Norris at the Circuit de Catalunya in Spain. So, although the Dutchman has still prevailed in 26 of his last 38 races since January 2023, he continues to suffer as a result of Red Bull’s balance issues and McLaren’s newfound speed and consistency.

Things may get worse before they improve for Verstappen, especially given the low-downforce nature of the Baku City Circuit and its numerous, lengthy straights. This will suit McLaren perfectly, especially given the recent form, speed and consistency of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri.

The real question here is which of these drivers will edge out the other? Well, Norris has been noticeably faster in Monza and Zandvoort, both in qualifying and the respective races. It has also been reported that McLaren may adjust its team orders and strategy to afford Norris an edge in the Drivers’ Championship, and this could prove crucial if the constructor dominates in Baku.

Ferrari will also be a threat here, with the team usually performing better on street circuits and Leclerc having won superbly in Monza. However, Baku has more straights than most street circuits, while Ferrari’s victory in the Italian Grand Prix owed more to a bold, one-stop pitting strategy than the speed of the car.

In fact, Leclerc was considerably slower than both McLarens in Monza, and I’m tipping Norris to record another victory in Baku while Piastri trails in second.

Our forecast: Lando Norris to win!

🔍 Betting on the 2024 Azerbaijan Grand Prix

• Despite being a street circuit, the track at Baku has a number of lengthy straights. This will definitely benefit the McLaren team and its in-form drivers
• Consider McLaren’s speed advantage in Azerbaijan too, with Norris having recorded the fastest lap in the previous two Grand Prixs (in Monza and Zandvoort)
• If you’re willing to bet late, consider following all practice and qualifying rounds to help inform your picks. This may create additional betting insights

🏁 Betting on the Azerbaijan Grand Prix - Our Conclusion

The Baku City Circuit will host its eighth Grand Prix in 2024, and its first in the month of September. However, summer conditions are expected in Azerbaijan this weekend, while this low-downforce track will also suit a McLaren team that’s in the ascendency. So, if the team hits on the right strategy in Baku, they could well secure a one-two with Norris taking the chequered flag.

💶 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix Free Bets

Last, but not least, we’d recommend that you check out our bookmaker reviews where you can learn more about the best free bets and promotional offers before wagering on the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. Here’s a summary of the current bonuses and their key terms and conditions!

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