McIlroy’s major dilemma - What's in for him?

On the 10th of August 2014, Rory McIlroy captured his 4th major title in the PGA Championship, defeating Phil Mickelson by one stroke. McIlroy had the golfing world at his feet, but to the shock of everyone he has not added to his major tally since. In 2025, McIlroy will enter his 11th year since major triumph.

This is significant because 11 years is the joint longest drought between major victories. Five players in golf history have had to wait 11 years between their last and next major title. These are Henry Cotton, Julius Boros, Hale Irwin, Ben Crenshaw and Tiger Woods. Can Rory replicate these golfing legends and end his major dilemma in 2025?

McIlroy has watched many fellow golfers taste major success not only once but several times since he last tasted major success. There have been 39 majors played in the last ten years, and 26 different players have won major titles during this period. The most significant of these players is Brooks Koepka.

Koepka has won 5 major titles since McIlroy last tasted major success, surpassing McIlroy’s tally and making Koepka the most successful major winner of the modern batch of players. As well as Koepka, other players have tasted major success on multiple occasions between the time period of 2015 to present. These are Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Colin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Scottie Scheffler and most recently Xander Schauffele. McIlroy has also lost out in major championships, finishing 5th in the 2018 Masters to Patrick Reed (McIlroy was 2nd going into the final Round), 3rd to Cameron Smith at the 2022 Open Championship, 2nd to Wyndham Clark at the 2023 U.S Open and most painfully and recently he was 2nd to Bryson DeChambeau at the 2024 U.S Open. McIlroy was crestfallen after the 2024 U.S Open and the manner in which he lost it, missing a short putt on the final green. This heartbreak could make it even harder for Rory to return to major glory.

McIlroy is 35 years of age, which makes his situation a lot different than fellow 11-year drought winners Woods, Crenshaw, Irwin, Cotton and Borus. Henry Cotton was 41 when he won the 1948 Open Championship, Tiger Woods was 43 when he won the 2019 U.S Masters, Ben Crenshaw was 43 when he won the 1995 U.S Masters, Julius Boros was 43 when he won 1963 U.S Open, and Hale Irwin was 45 when he won the 1990 U.S Open.

McIlroy should also take inspiration from Ernie Els, who ended his 10-year major drought in 2012 at the age of 42 and Phil Mickelson, who became the oldest major winner ending an 8-year major drought at the 2021 PGA Championship aged 50. Since his last major victory, McIlroy has 21 Top Tens, 9 Top Fives and three runner up finishes in the majors. When we look at the other players who went 11 years without a major, McIlroy’s record looks impressive. During his drought, Tiger Woods had 11 Top Tens, 7 Top Fives and 2 Runners Up. Hale Irwin managed 6 Top Tens and a Runner Up. Ben Crenshaw had 8 Top Tens and 6 Top Fives during his drought. Julius Boros had 8 Top Fives during his drought and actually went on to win another major five years later in 1968. Henry Cotton had 1 Top Ten and 2 Top Fives during his 11-year drought, although this drought came during World War 2 when some majors were put on hold. McIlroy’s major record is strong, even during a period of drought.

Rory McIlroy has had a hall-of-fame career, significantly winning four major titles, the Players Championship, 3 World Golf Championships and 3 FedEx Cups. If his career ended tomorrow he would go down as one of the best, but will he be satisfied with his career? I am sure when he turned professional in 2007, he would have taken the career he has had, but after his 4th major win in 2014, it looked for all the world that McIlroy would reach double digits in majors, something only three other male golfers have done, Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods and Walter Hagan. Rory McIlroy has plenty of time on his side to capture more major titles, but with each passing major, it becomes more difficult. I firmly believe he will win majors again, but after this most recent heartbreak at the 2024 U.S. Open, does he believe? The golfing world is forever changing, so does McIlroy have what it takes to end his major dilemma?

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