The Increased Competitiveness of F1 – Will This Help or Hinder Verstappen’s Title Tilt?

After a thrilling, +2.29 second victory over McLaren’s Lando Norris in the Spanish Grand Prix on June 23rd, Red Bull’s Max Verstappen had won seven out of 10 races in 2024.

This superb run also meant that the Dutchman had won 26 of his previous 32 races since the beginning of the 2023 campaign, and he appeared nailed on for another dominant season and Drivers’ Championship victory.

However, Verstappen has failed to win since, with Mercedes recording three victories in four races during the same period. The Dutchman has now lost as many F1 races as he has won in 2024, while the sport is arguably now more unpredictable than at any time in recent memory. But is this increased level of competitiveness likely to aid or hinder Verstappen in his latest title tilt?

What Happened in the Belgian Grand Prix?

Interestingly, Verstappen was only second favourite ahead of the recent Belgian Grand Prix, following a run of three races without a win (his worst such run since 2021). However, despite setting the fastest time in qualifying, he was hit with a 10-place grid penalty for making an authorised power unit change. He subsequently placed fourth in the race.

Norris was the pre-race favourite here and started six places higher than Verstappen on the grid, but he still trailed behind his rival in fifth. The drama even continued after the race was concluded, as while George Russell initially ousted Lewis Hamilton to secure an enthralling Mercedes one-two, he was subsequently disqualified after his car was found to be underweight.

This saw Hamilton awarded his second win in three races and 105th career victory overall. McLaren’s Oscar Piastri was promoted to second place, while Ferrari's Charles Leclerc ultimately claimed third.

Are McLaren and Mercedes Closing the Gap on Red Bull?

This race followed another thrilling outing at the Hungaroring, with Oscar Piastri earning his maiden F1 victory here by just +2.141 seconds here. Norris trailed closely in second, while Hamilton scraped third despite a controversial collision with old foe Verstappen.

Interestingly, the last seven F1 races have produced five different winners, while McLaren and Mercedes now have a combined total of five victories in 2024. McLaren have been particularly competitive this campaign, especially in terms of their speed and consistency of performance.

Even when Verstappen won the aforementioned Spanish Grand Prix at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya towards the end of June, McLaren matched Red Bull’s speed throughout the weekend, while the Dutchman has struggled to consistently secure pole position since. So, teams are competing on a far more even playing field, with just 42 points now separating Red Bull and McLaren in the Constructors’ Championship.

Ferrari are only 63 points behind Red Bull in third, while Mercedes’ unexpected recent winning run has seen them move on to 266 points in fourth.

What Does This Mean for Verstappen’s Title Defence?

Clearly, the recent revival of McLaren and Mercedes has tightened the Constructors’ Championship, with Red Bull’s lead having been slashed in recent weeks.

But is the same true in the Drivers’ Championship? Interestingly, Verstappen’s distant win in Spain on June 23rd saw him extend his lead here to 69 points over Lando Norris, with 10 of the season’s 24 races completed.

However, despite the Dutchman’s winless streak and Red Bull’s sudden loss of form, Verstappen’s lead had increased to 78 points once the dust had settled on the Belgian Grand Prix. He even managed to extend this further over Norris, with his fourth-place finishing earning him 12 points while his opponent came fifth and added 10 points to his total haul.

Incredibly, the increased levels of competitiveness in F1 may aid Verstappen’s title challenge, as his closest rivals (including Norris, Piastri and Russell) continue to trade victories and effectively take points off one another.

In the meantime, Verstappen remains the circuit’s most talented driver, while Red Bull’s undoubted speed means that he’ll collect enough points to maintain a healthy lead over his rivals (especially with races in the US, Holland and Mexico still yet to take place).

What Next for the 2024 F1 Season?

We’re now in the midst of the 2024 mid-season break, with the action set to resume on August 23rd when the drivers and their teams will arrive for Dutch Grand Prix qualifying in the Netherlands.

Verstappen has won twice here previously and tends to perform well at the speedy Zandvoort track, and he’ll fancy his chances of getting back to winning ways here. You can wager on this race and check out the latest markets by visiting the Betinireland homepage.

We’ll also publish an individual race prediction for the Dutch Grand Prix closer to the time! In the meantime, stay tuned for more weekly sports content and news across a range of disciplines!